Winner picked more likely trump more likely biden When you choose the winner in one place, our model updates its projections everywhere else. 13 in 100 chance of winning 192.7 average electoral votes 87 in 100 chance of winning 345.3 average electoral votes

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This article was written in collaboration with First Draft, a nonprofit organization that provides investigative research to newsrooms tracking and reporting on mis- and disinformation. When we picture the entity behind a network of disinformation websites, a few archetypes spring to mind: shadowy figures intent on interfering with democracy, Russian agents, Macedonian teens. Not usually…

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According to the FiveThirtyEight forecast,1 Democrats have a 72 percent chance of winning a federal government trifecta: that is, control of the presidency, Senate and House. But the 2020 election could also usher in a number of new trifectas on the state level. Single-party control of the governor’s office, state Senate and state House can…

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Over the past few months, President Trump has framed the 2020 election as a defense of suburbia. In a Wall Street Journal column in August, he and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson promised to protect the suburbs from being transformed into “dysfunctional cities.” And in a tweet several days later, Trump warned…

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This is the fifth in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states. Wisconsin is proof that politicos have short memories. In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry carried Wisconsin by just 0.4 percentage points — making it the closest state in the country. Four years earlier, it had…

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