Election Information
De-escalation Keeps Protesters And Police Safer. Departments Respond With Force Anyway.
This article was published in partnership with The Marshall Project, a nonprofit news organization covering the U.S. criminal justice system. MINNEAPOLIS — Last Wednesday, Marcell Harris was hit by a rubber bullet. He had joined the second day of protests in this city over the killing of George Floyd, a black man who died after…
Read MorePolice Are Killing Fewer People In Big Cities, But More In Suburban And Rural America
Six years after nationwide protests against police violence captured the country’s attention, the recent killings of Breonna Taylor and George Floyd have put the issue of police violence back into national focus. Many are left asking what, if anything, has really changed? In the absence of comprehensive federal data, databases such as Fatal Encounters, Mapping…
Read MoreHow Accurate Have Senate Polls Been, And What Could That Mean For November?
The 2016 election was an off year for state-level polls of the presidential race. But for polls of U.S. Senate races, it was a perfectly ordinary year — better than average, even. And Senate polls in the 2018 election were even more accurate. In the 2017-18 cycle, U.S. Senate polls conducted in the three weeks…
Read MoreAfter Minneapolis, Can Trump’s Law-And-Order Strategy Work?
When President Trump delivered his inaugural address in 2017, it was in an unfamiliar style. Gone was the jokey off-handedness of Trump-on-the-trail. In a stilted, elegiac tone the freshly-minted president spoke of “rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones” and “young and beautiful students deprived of knowledge.” The content of the speech was familiar, though: Trump would…
Read MoreStates Are Reopening, But Many Americans Say They Aren’t Rushing Back To Normal Life
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week Almost all states have now begun phased reopenings after shutting down nonessential businesses to slow the spread of the coronavirus. However, any dreams that life would return to its pre-pandemic normal do not appear to be coming true. Recent polling indicates that Americans are…
Read MoreDon’t Expect A Quick Recovery. Our Survey Of Economists Says It Will Likely Take Years.
Graphics by Yutong Yuan All across the country, the gears of the economy are grinding slowly and creakily into motion. Retail stores are newly open for in-person shopping in California. It’s possible to get a much-needed haircut in Alabama. And in Alaska, bartenders are even slinging drinks again — albeit with strict capacity and spacing…
Read MoreHow Accurate Are State Polls? And What Could That Mean For November?
Our latest recap of the accuracy of polling in American elections reinforced something we’ve been saying for a while: The polls are all right. In particular, polls of presidential general elections have historically been quite accurate. Polls conducted in the final 21 days before the last five presidential general elections had a weighted average error…
Read MoreDo You Buy That … Biden Should Pick A Running Mate From A Swing State?
The Gap Between Democrats And Republicans Is Growing On The Coronavirus Crisis
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week When it comes to the coronavirus pandemic, one of the storylines we’ve been following is the growing gap between how Democrats and Republicans view the crisis. The most obvious divide until this point has been largely political: that is, how Democrats and Republicans view…
Read MoreHow Bad Is The COVID-19 Misinformation Epidemic?
The COVID-19 pandemic has been equally defined by how much we don’t know as how much we do. That vacuum has been quickly filled with bullshit. The United Nations secretary-general has warned we’re living through “a pandemic of misinformation,” and the head of the World Health Organization said it’s an “infodemic.” In the midst of…
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