Election Information

The Iowa Caucuses Are In 17 Days. What’s Going On In The Early States?

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week Throughout the primary, we’ve been tracking polls in the four early states to better understand how the race differs in each of them, as each state tells its own story about how the 2020 Democratic primary could shake out. For instance, Iowa is a…

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Trump May Be Even More Unpopular Than His Approval Rating Shows

Polls have consistently shown that President Trump is pretty unpopular, with only about 42 percent of the American public approving of the job he is doing as president. These numbers are much lower than what one might expect given the bustling economy. But does the standard presidential approval question actually capture what voters think of…

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What The Sanders vs. Warren Battle Is Really About

Sen. Elizabeth Warren played to a friendly crowd when she visited Brooklyn last week. The rally at King’s Theatre on Flatbush Avenue — an ornate people’s palace kind of joint with fleur de lis in the molding and vaudeville ghosts in the rafters — was a 4,800-person shot in the arm for her campaign, which…

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The January Democratic Debate In 6 Charts

We’re less than three weeks away from the Iowa caucuses, and the Democrats held their first presidential debate of 2020 on Tuesday night in Iowa. Just six candidates took the stage this time, the smallest grouping yet. Much of the debate centered on foreign policy, given President Trump’s recent decision to authorize a drone strike…

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Did Tuesday Night’s Democratic Debate Do Anything To Break The Logjam In Iowa?

Welcome to a special, post-debate edition of FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Just six candidates made the debate stage on Tuesday night, and with less than three weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, this was the last time voters will see these candidates…

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What Went Down At The January Democratic Debate

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Election Update: Two New Polls Show Biden’s Upside Scenario

With a mix of relatively strong and relatively weak polls for each of the major candidates, the top line of our 2020 Democratic primary forecast has been roughly unchanged over the past several days. In a race without a clear favorite, former Vice President Joe Biden remains the front-runner, with a 39 percent chance of…

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Will The Last Debate Before Iowa Shake Up The 2020 Race?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): This is the first debate of 2020 and the last debate before the voting starts in Iowa in less than three weeks. There are six candidates (the smallest debate stage yet), and we’ve finally published our primary…

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